The Features of Modeling the Level of Development Business Structures in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk
Yu. A. Kravchenko
SO HPE «Donetsk National University of Economics and Trade named after Mykhayilo Tugan-Baranovsky»
Annotation: Forecasting the future development of business structures occurs in conditions of uncertainty, incomplete or inaccurate information, the complete elimination of which is impossible. Therefore, in order to determine alternative options for the level of development business structures and find its optimal value, it becomes expedient to use game modeling methods, in particular, game theory and tasks of linear programming. The article proposes to formulate the problem of modeling in a game setting using certain stages: determination of the parameters of the payment matrix and the formation of initial data; determination of pure and mixed strategies for each parameter of the matrix; determination of the optimal alternative to the game based on the construction of inequalities, the calculation of the values of the objective functions, the range of variables and the system of constraints. As participants in the game (initial parameters of the payment matrix), it is proposed to take the types of strategic changes that reflect the essential content of the development business structure, as well as the levels of risk situations in which strategic changes will occur. The scientific and methodical approach proposed in the article to modeling the level of development business structures in conditions of uncertainty and risk made it possible to determine its optimal values (strategies), i.e. types of strategic changes, taking into account the achieved level of efficiency and at a certain level of risk.
Keywords: modeling, level of development, business structures, risk, optimal strategy, alternative, linear programming.
Pages: 105-114.
Link for citation: Kravchenko, Yu. A. The Features of Modeling the Level of Development Business Structures in Conditions of Uncertainty and Risk. – Text : electronic. – In: Economics of Civil Engineering and Municipal Economy. – 2021. – Vol. 17, N 3. – Р. 105-114. – URL: https://donnasa.ru/publish_house/journals/esgh/2021-3/02_kravchenko.pdf (date of access: 01.09.2024). (in Russian)
Vol. 17, N 3 (2021)Journal: Economics of Civil Engineering and Municipal Economy
Publish house: Donbas National Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture